Closing spread
DEN -7.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play-0.001
- 37.8%Success rate42.8%
- -0.112EPA / dropback+0.071
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.100
- 5.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- -0.79CPOE+1.55
- 34.0%Third-down rate40.0%
- 55.6%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 0.94Points / drive1.46
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 20/27 | 244 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selvin Young | 17 | 156 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.04