Closing spread
NO -4
Total
44
Model margin
+0.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.148
- 47.6%Success rate37.3%
- +0.072EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.167
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- +4.63CPOE-3.93
- 46.0%Third-down rate36.4%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.69Points / drive1.07
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/41 | 328 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 23/40 | 298 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.45