Closing spread
IND -9.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. OAK are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:58 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 10–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:42 | 7 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 10–0 |
| IND | Q1 4:25 | 12 | 54 | Turnover on downs | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 14:55 | 21 | 94 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 3:06 | 5 | 7 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 1:25 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 0:43 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:15 | 3 | 5 | End of half | 10–7 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 10–7 |
| IND | Q3 12:48 | 11 | 71 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 8:06 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–7 |
| IND | Q3 6:31 | 4 | 36 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 5:02 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–7 |
| IND | Q3 3:01 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 2:09 | 13 | 53 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| IND | Q4 10:29 | 12 | 86 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| LV | Q4 4:49 | 8 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 21–14 |
| IND | Q4 1:50 | 5 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 21–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/39 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kenton Keith | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.