Closing spread
IND -9.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. OAK are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/39 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kenton Keith | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.