Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.108EPA / play+0.055
- 44.1%Success rate41.8%
- +0.191EPA / dropback+0.197
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- +2.15CPOE+5.79
- 47.2%Third-down rate47.9%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 2.25Points / drive2.10
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:15 | 7 | 42 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:36 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:41 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 2:52 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 1:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q2 14:55 | 4 | 31 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 14:13 | 5 | 45 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 12:33 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 9:08 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 7:33 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 6:07 | 10 | 53 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| PIT | Q2 1:01 | 4 | 25 | End of half | 10–7 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 20 | 74 | Touchdown | 16–7 |
| PIT | Q3 5:20 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 22–7 |
| JAX | Q3 3:57 | 1 | 55 | Touchdown | 22–7 |
| PIT | Q3 3:47 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 22–7 |
| JAX | Q3 2:08 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 22–7 |
| PIT | Q4 14:03 | 3 | 12 | Touchdown | 22–14 |
| JAX | Q4 13:11 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 22–14 |
| PIT | Q4 9:29 | 8 | 84 | Touchdown | 22–22 |
| JAX | Q4 5:46 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 29–22 |
| PIT | Q4 1:57 | 7 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 29–22 |
| JAX | Q4 0:41 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 29–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 17/33 | 197 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 25 | 147 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/33 | 146 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 14 | 100 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.58