2007 · Week 15

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

29·22

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 35°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.108EPA / play+0.055
  • 44.1%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.191EPA / dropback+0.197
  • +0.015EPA / rush-0.100
  • 10.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +2.15CPOE+5.79
  • 47.2%Third-down rate47.9%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.10
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard17/3319731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor251475.91
Maurice Jones-Drew12695.80
David Garrard482.00

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger16/3314630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker141007.10
Ben Roethlisberger2157.50
Najeh Davenport1-4-4.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.58