Closing spread
ARI -11
Total
44
Model margin
+4.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.037
- 37.3%Success rate42.9%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.116
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.2%
- -3.93CPOE+0.38
- 36.4%Third-down rate36.9%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 1.07Points / drive1.68
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ARI are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 28/42 | 315 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 12 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 36/53 | 361 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 25 | 76 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.75