Closing spread
ARI -11
Total
44
Model margin
+4.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.037
- 37.3%Success rate42.9%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.116
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.2%
- -3.93CPOE+0.38
- 36.4%Third-down rate36.9%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 1.07Points / drive1.68
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ARI are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 13:25 | 9 | 32 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:28 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 4:14 | 9 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q1 1:01 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q2 14:30 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 12:45 | 8 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| ATL | Q2 8:10 | 1 | 74 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q2 7:54 | 7 | 36 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| ATL | Q2 4:01 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q2 2:32 | 9 | 53 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| ATL | Q2 0:16 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 14–24 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 14–24 |
| ARI | Q3 12:06 | 7 | 56 | Punt | 14–24 |
| ATL | Q3 8:12 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 14–24 |
| ARI | Q3 6:34 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–24 |
| ATL | Q3 5:06 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 14–24 |
| ARI | Q3 3:46 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 14–24 |
| ATL | Q3 1:01 | 16 | 93 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| ARI | Q4 8:52 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–24 |
| ATL | Q4 7:47 | 8 | 48 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| ARI | Q4 4:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–24 |
| ATL | Q4 3:00 | 8 | 37 | Field goal | 27–24 |
| ARI | Q4 1:38 | 6 | 58 | Field goal | 27–27 |
| ARI | OT | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 27–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 28/42 | 315 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 12 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 36/53 | 361 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 25 | 76 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.75