Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
43
Model margin
+3.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.024
- 42.4%Success rate46.0%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.091
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- -2.23CPOE+5.31
- 42.7%Third-down rate45.6%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.84Points / drive1.86
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 29/48 | 250 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 21 | 92 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 11/21 | 115 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Watson | 30 | 130 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| DeDe Dorsey | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Glenn Holt | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.39