Closing spread
SD -9
Total
47
Model margin
+2.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 35 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:40 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 7:30 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 4:46 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q1 1:51 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 14:11 | 9 | 28 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 9:59 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 8:20 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| DEN | Q2 3:43 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LAC | Q2 2:33 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 0–16 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 94 | Touchdown | 0–23 |
| DEN | Q3 7:56 | 9 | 52 | Turnover | 0–23 |
| LAC | Q3 4:20 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 0–23 |
| DEN | Q3 3:35 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 3–23 |
| LAC | Q3 2:47 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–23 |
| DEN | Q3 1:09 | 10 | 73 | Turnover on downs | 3–23 |
| LAC | Q4 11:44 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–23 |
| DEN | Q4 9:25 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 3–23 |
| LAC | Q4 8:35 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–23 |
| DEN | Q4 6:18 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 3–23 |
| LAC | Q4 5:19 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–23 |
| DEN | Q4 3:55 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 3–23 |
| LAC | Q4 1:49 | 3 | -2 | End of half | 3–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 14/32 | 155 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.61
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.