2007 · Week 16
Final
Monster Park · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -6.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.254
- 41.9%Success rate36.7%
- +0.063EPA / dropback-0.277
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.213
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- +2.62CPOE-5.63
- 39.3%Third-down rate31.5%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.64Points / drive0.92
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 13:17 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:09 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 6:24 | 7 | 63 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| SF | Q1 2:36 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| TB | Q2 14:56 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–7 |
| SF | Q2 13:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–7 |
| TB | Q2 12:58 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 6–7 |
| SF | Q2 10:03 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–7 |
| TB | Q2 8:03 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 6–7 |
| SF | Q2 5:44 | 1 | 15 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| TB | Q2 5:33 | 4 | 36 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| SF | Q2 3:49 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 13–7 |
| TB | Q2 1:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–7 |
| SF | Q2 0:32 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| TB | Q2 0:26 | 4 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 13–7 |
| SF | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–7 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 13–7 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 13–7 |
| TB | Q3 12:13 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| SF | Q3 10:57 | 4 | 8 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| TB | Q3 9:30 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–14 |
| SF | Q3 7:49 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 13–14 |
| TB | Q3 3:41 | 10 | 71 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| SF | Q4 14:17 | 1 | 23 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| TB | Q4 14:11 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 13–21 |
| SF | Q4 10:48 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–21 |
| TB | Q4 9:23 | 10 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 13–21 |
| SF | Q4 5:20 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 13–21 |
| TB | Q4 2:45 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 19–21 |
| SF | Q4 1:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 12/20 | 196 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 18/32 | 185 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 11/24 | 123 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 89 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.47
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.22