2007 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 14mph
Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.004
- 38.9%Success rate41.9%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.8%
- -5.47CPOE+2.62
- 36.1%Third-down rate39.3%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.27Points / drive1.64
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 15/24 | 174 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 20 | 121 | 6.0 | 2 |
| DeShaun Foster | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Alex Haynes | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McCown | 21/28 | 236 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McCown | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 15 | 39 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Darby | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.58
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.55