Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
45
Model margin
-0.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play-0.078
- 46.0%Success rate40.4%
- +0.100EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- +5.31CPOE-3.12
- 45.6%Third-down rate37.0%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.86Points / drive1.36
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–6 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. MIA are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 37 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 11:16 | 15 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q1 3:53 | 8 | 21 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 14:44 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 12:49 | 11 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| CIN | Q2 7:03 | 2 | 82 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| MIA | Q2 6:27 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 14–10 |
| CIN | Q2 3:40 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 14–10 |
| MIA | Q2 1:41 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–10 |
| CIN | Q2 1:02 | 4 | 63 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| MIA | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–10 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| MIA | Q3 14:27 | 3 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 28–10 |
| MIA | Q3 13:12 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 28–10 |
| CIN | Q3 11:10 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 28–10 |
| MIA | Q3 9:10 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 28–10 |
| CIN | Q3 8:15 | 6 | 40 | Punt | 28–10 |
| MIA | Q3 4:22 | 13 | 86 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| CIN | Q4 12:21 | 4 | 65 | Touchdown | 35–17 |
| MIA | Q4 10:03 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 35–17 |
| CIN | Q4 8:32 | 14 | 54 | Field goal | 38–17 |
| MIA | Q4 2:16 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 38–25 |
| CIN | Q4 0:28 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 23/32 | 316 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Watson | 21 | 69 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Beck | 13/21 | 135 | 1 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 14/21 | 123 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Chatman | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| John Beck | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.95