Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+7.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.065EPA / play+0.075
- 42.9%Success rate43.6%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.109
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.53CPOE+4.25
- 32.3%Third-down rate42.9%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.58Points / drive2.16
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/48 | 246 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Shaun McDonald | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 9/11 | 99 | 2 | 0 |
| Craig Nall | 7/15 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 20 | 113 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Craig Nall | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.03