Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+7.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.065EPA / play+0.075
- 42.9%Success rate43.6%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.109
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.53CPOE+4.25
- 32.3%Third-down rate42.9%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.58Points / drive2.16
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 16 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:07 | 4 | 62 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| DET | Q1 9:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| GB | Q1 8:27 | 12 | 92 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| DET | Q1 2:25 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| GB | Q1 2:12 | 6 | 41 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| DET | Q2 14:12 | 9 | 50 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| GB | Q2 9:29 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–21 |
| DET | Q2 8:35 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–21 |
| GB | Q2 8:12 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–21 |
| DET | Q2 5:27 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| GB | Q2 1:52 | 5 | 14 | End of half | 10–21 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 50 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| DET | Q3 12:29 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–24 |
| GB | Q3 10:23 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| DET | Q3 10:12 | 9 | 30 | Field goal | 13–24 |
| GB | Q3 7:00 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| DET | Q3 2:48 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 13–31 |
| GB | Q3 1:11 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–31 |
| DET | Q4 14:48 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–31 |
| GB | Q4 13:05 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 13–34 |
| DET | Q4 10:03 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 13–34 |
| GB | Q4 6:52 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–34 |
| DET | Q4 4:29 | 10 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 13–34 |
| GB | Q4 2:51 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 13–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/48 | 246 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Shaun McDonald | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 9/11 | 99 | 2 | 0 |
| Craig Nall | 7/15 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 20 | 113 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Craig Nall | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.03