Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
34.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
6.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play-0.108
- 41.8%Success rate40.5%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.090
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.133
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.5%
- +5.79CPOE+1.46
- 47.9%Third-down rate37.9%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 2.10Points / drive1.35
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 14:53 | 8 | 34 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 10:08 | 7 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 6:16 | 11 | 47 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q1 1:48 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BAL | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| PIT | Q2 13:27 | 7 | 28 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| BAL | Q2 10:07 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q2 6:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–17 |
| BAL | Q2 5:52 | 3 | -14 | Punt | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q2 4:58 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| BAL | Q2 4:44 | 2 | -1 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| BAL | Q2 4:44 | 2 | 17 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| BAL | Q2 2:00 | 5 | 12 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| PIT | Q2 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–20 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 52 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| PIT | Q3 11:34 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 7–20 |
| BAL | Q3 9:06 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| PIT | Q3 3:41 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 7–27 |
| BAL | Q4 14:09 | 8 | 44 | Punt | 7–27 |
| PIT | Q4 8:44 | 4 | 91 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| BAL | Q4 7:13 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| PIT | Q4 7:10 | 9 | 42 | Touchdown | 21–27 |
| BAL | Q4 3:36 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 21–27 |
| PIT | Q4 1:36 | 4 | 28 | Turnover | 21–27 |
| BAL | Q4 1:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 16/31 | 218 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najeh Davenport | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Gary Russell | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Smith | 16/27 | 171 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musa Smith | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Cory Ross | 12 | 72 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Troy Smith | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
6.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+6.37
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.45