Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
34.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
6.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play-0.108
- 41.8%Success rate40.5%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.090
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.133
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.5%
- +5.79CPOE+1.46
- 47.9%Third-down rate37.9%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 2.10Points / drive1.35
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 16/31 | 218 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najeh Davenport | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Gary Russell | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Smith | 16/27 | 171 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musa Smith | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Cory Ross | 12 | 72 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Troy Smith | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
6.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+6.37
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.45