Closing spread
SEA -2
Total
38
Model margin
-1.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play-0.148
- 45.1%Success rate37.3%
- +0.107EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.167
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.40CPOE-3.93
- 35.7%Third-down rate36.4%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.77Points / drive1.07
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:32 | 9 | 25 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 7:24 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 4:46 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 3:01 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 2:07 | 5 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 0:04 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| ATL | Q2 13:09 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| SEA | Q2 9:34 | 8 | 18 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| ATL | Q2 5:52 | 2 | 32 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| SEA | Q2 5:10 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| ATL | Q2 1:10 | 7 | 42 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–17 |
| SEA | Q3 12:54 | 12 | 46 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| ATL | Q3 6:41 | 6 | 18 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| SEA | Q3 4:07 | 7 | 77 | Touchdown | 27–20 |
| ATL | Q3 1:19 | 4 | 68 | Touchdown | 27–27 |
| SEA | Q4 14:52 | 1 | -8 | Turnover | 27–27 |
| ATL | Q4 14:37 | 3 | 19 | Touchdown | 27–34 |
| SEA | Q4 13:30 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 27–40 |
| ATL | Q4 13:20 | 1 | 10 | Touchdown | 27–41 |
| SEA | Q4 13:15 | 11 | 90 | Touchdown | 34–41 |
| ATL | Q4 7:49 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 34–44 |
| SEA | Q4 3:23 | 10 | 96 | Touchdown | 41–44 |
| ATL | Q4 0:54 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 41–44 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 17/22 | 206 | 2 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 15/25 | 147 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 13 | 91 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 17/27 | 251 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.07