Closing spread
SEA -2
Total
38
Model margin
-1.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play-0.148
- 45.1%Success rate37.3%
- +0.107EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.167
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.40CPOE-3.93
- 35.7%Third-down rate36.4%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.77Points / drive1.07
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 17/22 | 206 | 2 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 15/25 | 147 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 13 | 91 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 17/27 | 251 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.07