Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
40.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.139
- 42.4%Success rate48.8%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.139EPA / rush+0.025
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.7%
- +1.31CPOE+1.87
- 41.4%Third-down rate49.3%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.43Points / drive2.49
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–16 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:41 | 9 | 58 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 4:46 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 1:20 | 11 | 64 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q2 10:40 | 6 | 47 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| IND | Q2 7:58 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q2 3:42 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–3 |
| IND | Q2 2:40 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q2 2:13 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 7–3 |
| IND | Q2 0:35 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–3 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q3 12:55 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| IND | Q3 10:31 | 5 | 10 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q3 9:09 | 12 | 61 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| IND | Q3 1:05 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 10–10 |
| TEN | Q4 13:11 | 11 | 58 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| IND | Q4 7:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–10 |
| TEN | Q4 5:21 | 8 | 32 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| IND | Q4 2:56 | 4 | -1 | Turnover on downs | 16–10 |
| TEN | Q4 1:54 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 16–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 14/18 | 157 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 10/13 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 14/16 | 95 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 11/24 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Kenton Keith | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Clifton Dawson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-6.61
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.40