2007 · WC
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.004
- 44.2%Success rate41.9%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- -5.32CPOE+2.62
- 41.9%Third-down rate39.3%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.67Points / drive1.64
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 8–5 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. TB are 3-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/27 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 1 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 23/39 | 207 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.46