Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+6.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.103
- 44.2%Success rate46.7%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.059EPA / rush+0.071
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.44CPOE+1.36
- 40.4%Third-down rate44.4%
- 44.7%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.59Points / drive2.35
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:45 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 10:39 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 4:42 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 0:21 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 0:13 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q2 13:25 | 10 | 53 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| NE | Q2 7:05 | 10 | 59 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| BUF | Q2 2:19 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NE | Q2 0:55 | 2 | 5 | End of half | 3–10 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 64 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| BUF | Q3 8:11 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–13 |
| NE | Q3 6:35 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 3–13 |
| BUF | Q3 3:22 | 7 | 21 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| NE | Q3 0:35 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| BUF | Q4 13:43 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 3–13 |
| NE | Q4 11:05 | 20 | 90 | Touchdown | 3–20 |
| BUF | Q4 1:57 | 1 | 14 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| NE | Q4 1:42 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 13/23 | 120 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 23/34 | 234 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 26 | 105 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.14