Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+6.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.103
- 44.2%Success rate46.7%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.059EPA / rush+0.071
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.44CPOE+1.36
- 40.4%Third-down rate44.4%
- 44.7%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.59Points / drive2.35
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 13/23 | 120 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 23/34 | 234 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 26 | 105 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.14