Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
35
Model margin
-1.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.103EPA / play-0.050
- 46.7%Success rate44.2%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.043
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.059
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.36CPOE+1.44
- 44.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate44.7%
- 2.35Points / drive1.59
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 6/8 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 24 | 85 | 3.5 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 14/25 | 128 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 27 | 136 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Omon | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.17