Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
35
Model margin
-1.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.103EPA / play-0.050
- 46.7%Success rate44.2%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.043
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.059
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.36CPOE+1.44
- 44.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate44.7%
- 2.35Points / drive1.59
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 11:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 8:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 7:12 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 3:01 | 9 | 42 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| NE | Q2 11:21 | 13 | 55 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q2 4:16 | 11 | 71 | End of half | 3–0 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q3 13:17 | 5 | 7 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| NE | Q3 10:39 | 11 | 43 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q3 4:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–0 |
| NE | Q3 3:13 | 14 | 80 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q4 10:15 | 8 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 13–0 |
| NE | Q4 6:36 | 2 | 2 | Punt | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q4 5:01 | 15 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 13–0 |
| NE | Q4 2:25 | 2 | 7 | Punt | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q4 1:04 | 4 | 20 | End of half | 13–0 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 6/8 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 24 | 85 | 3.5 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 14/25 | 128 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 27 | 136 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Omon | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.17