Closing spread
GB -5
Total
47
Model margin
+8.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.124
- 39.6%Success rate44.9%
- -0.064EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.018
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.30CPOE+3.74
- 37.3%Third-down rate47.0%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.57Points / drive2.22
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/36 | 277 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 25 | 55 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Hester | 4 | 4 | 90 | 1 |
| Johnny Knox | 2 | 4 | 82 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 7 | 13 | 66 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/28 | 184 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 1 |
| DeShawn Wynn | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 8 | 106 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Korey Hall | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| DeShawn Wynn | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.26