2009 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

15·21

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

GB -5

Total

47

Model margin

+8.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.124
  • 39.6%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.064EPA / dropback+0.213
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.018
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.30CPOE+3.74
  • 37.3%Third-down rate47.0%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.57Points / drive2.22
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
GBQ1 15:00620Missed field goal0–0
CHIQ1 11:3932Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:45732Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:13946Turnover0–0
GBQ1 4:0535Punt0–0
CHIQ1 2:3937Punt0–0
GBQ1 0:5831Punt0–0
CHIQ2 14:5237Punt0–0
GBQ2 13:14954Field goal0–3
CHIQ2 8:18468Turnover0–3
GBQ2 6:473-14Safety2–3
CHIQ2 5:5232Turnover2–9
GBQ2 4:4011Touchdown2–10
CHIQ2 4:36519Punt2–10
GBQ2 1:4435Punt2–10
CHIQ2 0:47410Turnover on downs2–10
CHIQ3 15:001079Touchdown9–10
GBQ3 10:1442Punt9–10
CHIQ3 8:35740Field goal12–10
GBQ3 3:51631Punt12–10
GBQ4 14:5000Punt12–10
CHIQ4 14:411-1Turnover on downs12–10
CHIQ4 13:5649Turnover on downs12–10
GBQ4 12:39419Field goal12–13
CHIQ4 10:101464Field goal15–13
GBQ4 2:35572Touchdown15–21
CHIQ4 1:1110Turnover15–21
GBQ4 0:5800End of half15–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler17/3627714

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte25552.20
Jay Cutler3165.30
Garrett Wolfe3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Hester44901
Johnny Knox24820
Earl Bennett713660
Desmond Clark14230
Jason McKie1280
Greg Olsen1680
Garrett Wolfe1100
Matt Forte0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers17/2818410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant16613.81
DeShawn Wynn382.70
Aaron Rodgers372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings681061
Donald Driver47390
Korey Hall11110
Donald Lee3380
DeShawn Wynn1480
Ryan Grant1160
Jermichael Finley1160
James Jones0100
Jordy Nelson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +52.8%5.5%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.4%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.26