2009 · Week 1

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

27·45

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -14

Total

50

Model margin

+7.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSaints
  • -0.169EPA / play+0.118
  • 39.2%Success rate48.1%
  • -0.183EPA / dropback+0.231
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.028
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -6.85CPOE+6.47
  • 35.8%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 46.3%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.11Points / drive2.36
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 8–6 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NO @ DET30–31DET
2023 · W13DET @ NO33–28DET
2020 · W4NO @ DET35–29NO
2017 · W6DET @ NO38–52NO
2016 · W13DET @ NO28–13DET
2015 · W15DET @ NO35–27DET
2014 · W7NO @ DET23–24DET
2011 · playoffsDET @ NO28–45NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NO
NOQ1 15:00554Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 12:1135Punt0–7
NOQ1 10:43353Touchdown0–14
DETQ1 9:34851Field goal3–14
NOQ1 5:12312Punt3–14
DETQ1 3:3831Punt3–14
NOQ1 2:4837Punt3–14
DETQ1 1:11413Touchdown10–14
NOQ2 14:06618Turnover10–14
DETQ2 10:2336Punt10–14
NOQ2 8:491065Touchdown10–21
DETQ2 3:4554Punt10–21
NOQ2 2:21459Touchdown10–28
DETQ2 1:1035Punt10–28
DETQ2 0:3910Turnover10–28
NOQ2 0:274-1Missed field goal10–28
DETQ2 0:0100End of half10–28
DETQ3 15:00870Touchdown17–28
NOQ3 11:47969Field goal17–31
DETQ3 6:11511Field goal20–31
NOQ3 3:22158Touchdown20–38
DETQ3 3:03419Turnover26–38
NOQ3 1:431-2Opp touchdown27–38
NOQ3 1:291483Touchdown27–45
DETQ4 8:291047Turnover27–45
NOQ4 4:48940End of half27–45

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford16/3720503

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith15201.31
Aaron Brown199.00
Matthew Stafford200.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson313900
Kevin Smith79520
Bryant Johnson48450
Casey Fitzsimmons11110
Yamon Figurs1270
Will Heller0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/3435861

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Bell281435.10
Reggie Bush7142.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devery Henderson581031
Reggie Bush56550
Robert Meachem22511
Lance Moore23380
Jeremy Shockey44312
Marques Colston36301
David Thomas11150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.2%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.76