Closing spread
NO -14
Total
50
Model margin
+7.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.169EPA / play+0.118
- 39.2%Success rate48.1%
- -0.183EPA / dropback+0.231
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.028
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- -6.85CPOE+6.47
- 35.8%Third-down rate45.6%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.11Points / drive2.36
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 16/37 | 205 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 15 | 20 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Brown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 3 | 13 | 90 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 7 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 4 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Casey Fitzsimmons | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Yamon Figurs | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/34 | 358 | 6 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 28 | 143 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devery Henderson | 5 | 8 | 103 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 2 | 51 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 4 | 31 | 2 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| David Thomas | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.76