Closing spread
SD -10
Total
43
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- QuestionableJacques CesaireDECalf· Limited
- ProbableMarcus McNeillTHand· Full
Raiders
- OutChaz SchilensWRFoot· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulKhalif BarnesTAnkle· Limited
- DoubtfulNick MillerWRShin· DNP
- QuestionableJustin FargasRBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableIsaiah EkejiubaLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableKirk MorrisonLBElbow· Full
- ProbableNnamdi AsomughaCBWrist· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 46 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:23 | 10 | 84 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 3:13 | 5 | 11 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 0:14 | 12 | 36 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 9:07 | 7 | 45 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 4:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 3:36 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 2:23 | 9 | 45 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:40 | 4 | 12 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 59 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 10:08 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q3 9:10 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 8:06 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q3 6:33 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 4:09 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q3 3:05 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 1:44 | 6 | 51 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q4 13:01 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| LV | Q4 7:22 | 12 | 91 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q4 2:34 | 9 | 89 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| LV | Q4 0:18 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 24–20 |
| LAC | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–20 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.