Closing spread
ARI -5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play-0.026
- 37.0%Success rate45.3%
- -0.055EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.143
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.9%
- -2.69CPOE+3.71
- 29.4%Third-down rate36.7%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 1.54Points / drive1.75
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 18/31 | 209 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 22 | 30 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Glen Coffee | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Bruce | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Bruce | 4 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 5 | 18 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 26/44 | 288 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 12 | 14 | 121 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 11 | 71 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lance Long | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95