2009 · Week 1 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Shaun Hill

20·16

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.067EPA / play-0.026
  • 37.0%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.055EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.143
  • 8.1%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -2.69CPOE+3.71
  • 29.4%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.75
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00610Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:3638Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:2547Turnover0–0
SFQ1 8:04412Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 5:3436Punt3–0
SFQ1 3:4459Field goal6–0
ARIQ1 1:22557Field goal6–3
SFQ2 14:03622Punt6–3
ARIQ2 10:2433Punt6–3
SFQ2 8:1939Punt6–3
ARIQ2 7:0038Punt6–3
SFQ2 5:26768Touchdown13–3
ARIQ2 2:2310Turnover13–3
SFQ2 2:133-10Turnover13–3
ARIQ2 1:15638Field goal13–6
SFQ3 15:0034Punt13–6
ARIQ3 13:26611Punt13–6
SFQ3 10:2935Punt13–6
ARIQ3 8:21769Touchdown13–13
SFQ3 4:113-5Punt13–13
ARIQ3 3:12736Field goal13–16
SFQ4 14:521676Touchdown20–16
ARIQ4 7:26518Punt20–16
SFQ4 5:313-1Punt20–16
ARIQ4 3:11520Turnover on downs20–16
SFQ4 1:5136Punt20–16
ARIQ4 0:43316End of half20–16

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun Hill18/3120910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore22301.41
Glen Coffee1-3-3.00
Isaac Bruce1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaac Bruce48740
Vernon Davis57400
Josh Morgan35380
Arnaz Battle22220
Frank Gore35181
Delanie Walker13170

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner26/4428812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells7294.10
Tim Hightower8151.90
Kurt Warner2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tim Hightower12141210
Jerheme Urban57740
Larry Fitzgerald611711
Anquan Boldin25190
Anthony Becht0100
Stephen Spach0100
Lance Long0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.09
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.95