Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
41
Model margin
-0.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutCraig DahlSHamstring· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutJohn GrecoTWrist· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableLarry GrantLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableMarc BulgerQBright Finger· Full
Seahawks
- OutChris SpencerCQuadricep· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutWalter JonesTKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulDerek WalkerDEHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulTravis FisherCBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableC.J. WallaceSRib· DNP
- QuestionableDeion BranchWRHamstring· DNP
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 14:53 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 14:03 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:45 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:32 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:07 | 1 | 11 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:56 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:33 | 7 | 60 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:11 | 11 | 63 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 12:00 | 13 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 5:45 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 4:07 | 12 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 0:12 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q3 12:11 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q3 8:57 | 7 | 99 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| LA | Q3 5:02 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–27 |
| SEA | Q3 3:52 | 1 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| LA | Q3 3:42 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–28 |
| SEA | Q4 15:00 | 9 | 36 | Punt | 0–28 |
| LA | Q4 9:23 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–28 |
| SEA | Q4 7:56 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–28 |
| LA | Q4 4:22 | 8 | 86 | Turnover on downs | 0–28 |
| SEA | Q4 2:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–28 |
| LA | Q4 1:24 | 5 | 23 | End of half | 0–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 25/36 | 279 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 19 | 117 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | 6 | 8 | 95 | 2 |
| Nate Burleson | 7 | 11 | 74 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 6 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.45
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.