Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
41
Model margin
-0.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 25/36 | 279 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 19 | 117 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | 6 | 8 | 95 | 2 |
| Nate Burleson | 7 | 11 | 74 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 6 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.45
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.