Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.043
- 40.8%Success rate44.8%
- +0.042EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.083
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.2%
- -2.63CPOE+4.22
- 41.0%Third-down rate40.3%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.79Points / drive1.83
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 22/35 | 244 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 7 | 11 | 78 | 1 |
| Bo Scaife | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 33/43 | 363 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 13 | 19 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 9 | 11 | 131 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 8 | 10 | 103 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 8 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.78