2009 · Week 1

Final / OT

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

10·13

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 67°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -6.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSteelers
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.043
  • 40.8%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.083
  • 9.0%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -2.63CPOE+4.22
  • 41.0%Third-down rate40.3%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.83
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–PIT
PITQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:1632Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:2452Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:20555Missed field goal0–0
PITQ1 6:443-6Punt0–0
TENQ1 4:49735Turnover0–0
PITQ1 1:3833Turnover0–0
TENQ1 0:0650Punt0–0
PITQ2 13:041053Punt0–0
TENQ2 7:141245Missed field goal0–0
PITQ2 2:14579Touchdown0–7
TENQ2 1:22371Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 0:48723Turnover7–7
TENQ3 15:00638Turnover7–7
PITQ3 11:5739Punt7–7
TENQ3 9:533-1Punt7–7
PITQ3 8:01611Punt7–7
TENQ3 5:08724Punt7–7
PITQ3 1:4338Punt7–7
TENQ4 14:51636Field goal10–7
PITQ4 11:031156Field goal10–10
TENQ4 2:57412Punt10–10
PITQ4 1:50454Turnover10–10
TENQ4 0:5133End of half10–10
PITOT963Field goal10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins22/3524411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson15573.80
LenDale White8283.50
Kerry Collins210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt46850
Justin Gage711781
Bo Scaife56480
Chris Johnson12110
Nate Washington1380
Alge Crumpler2350
LenDale White1150
Craig Stevens0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger33/4336312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker13191.50
Mewelde Moore581.60
Rashard Mendenhall461.50
Ben Roethlisberger133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes9111311
Hines Ward8101030
Heath Miller88640
Mike Wallace36320
Mewelde Moore47280
Willie Parker1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.3%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.78