2009 · Week 1 · Division
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 80°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
NYG -6
Total
37
Model margin
+1.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play+0.062
- 41.0%Success rate44.1%
- +0.023EPA / dropback+0.178
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.102
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.16CPOE+2.61
- 39.7%Third-down rate42.5%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
- 1.38Points / drive2.02
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 19/26 | 211 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antwaan Randle El | 7 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 7 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/29 | 256 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 6 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 3 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 3 | 4 | 58 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67