Closing spread
ATL -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.041
- 40.6%Success rate43.4%
- -0.092EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.036
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- -3.62CPOE-1.75
- 37.2%Third-down rate42.8%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 1.39Points / drive1.97
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 25/41 | 308 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 9 | 65 | 7.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 8 | 15 | 131 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/27 | 220 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 28 | 105 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 6 | 10 | 53 | 1 |
| Marty Booker | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.10