Closing spread
ATL -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Panthers
- DoubtfulChris HarrisSKnee· DNP
- QuestionableNick HaydenDTToe· Limited
- ProbableCharles JohnsonDEKnee· Full
- ProbableEverette BrownDEAnkle· Full
- ProbableJeff OtahTShoulder· Full
- ProbableJonathan StewartRBHeel· Full
- ProbableSherrod MartinCBKnee· Full
Falcons
- QuestionableWilliam MooreSHamstring· Full
- ProbableJason ElamKleft Hamstring· Full
- ProbablePeria JerryDTChest· Full
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.041
- 40.6%Success rate43.4%
- -0.092EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.036
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- -3.62CPOE-1.75
- 37.2%Third-down rate42.8%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 1.39Points / drive1.97
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–22 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 9:52 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 7:32 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 6:34 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 3:41 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 1:39 | 3 | 48 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q1 0:37 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| ATL | Q2 12:25 | 15 | 85 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| CAR | Q2 5:10 | 7 | 48 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| ATL | Q2 1:49 | 5 | 56 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| CAR | Q2 0:50 | 6 | 32 | End of half | 13–21 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 70 | Turnover | 13–21 |
| CAR | Q3 8:06 | 8 | 36 | Turnover | 13–21 |
| ATL | Q3 4:15 | 13 | 43 | Touchdown | 13–28 |
| CAR | Q4 12:23 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 20–28 |
| ATL | Q4 6:45 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 20–28 |
| CAR | Q4 5:35 | 9 | 61 | Turnover | 20–28 |
| ATL | Q4 2:37 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 20–28 |
| CAR | Q4 0:30 | 5 | 31 | End of half | 20–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 25/41 | 308 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 9 | 65 | 7.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 8 | 15 | 131 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/27 | 220 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 28 | 105 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 6 | 10 | 53 | 1 |
| Marty Booker | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.10