2009 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

27·13

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -10

Total

45

Model margin

-3.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • +0.085EPA / play-0.169
  • 45.1%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback-0.183
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.144
  • 10.4%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +5.77CPOE-6.85
  • 45.4%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 68.8%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.11
  • 1.6%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
MINQ1 15:00628Turnover0–0
DETQ1 11:261145Field goal0–3
MINQ1 5:0535Punt0–3
DETQ1 3:03641Turnover0–3
MINQ2 14:5138Punt0–3
DETQ2 12:5239Punt0–3
MINQ2 11:213-4Punt0–3
DETQ2 9:56952Touchdown0–10
MINQ2 5:401076Touchdown7–10
DETQ2 1:0433End of half7–10
DETQ3 15:003-11Punt7–10
MINQ3 12:531039Field goal10–10
DETQ3 8:3820Turnover16–10
MINQ3 7:54127Touchdown17–10
DETQ3 7:45521Punt17–10
MINQ3 4:533-9Punt17–10
DETQ3 3:03521Punt17–10
MINQ3 0:41860Field goal20–10
DETQ4 9:56630Turnover20–10
MINQ4 7:21316Touchdown27–10
DETQ4 5:581454Field goal27–13
MINQ4 2:37422End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre23/2715520
Tarvaris Jackson1/11400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson15926.11
Percy Harvin2147.00
Chester Taylor482.00
Tarvaris Jackson3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bernard Berrian66460
Percy Harvin55411
Sidney Rice35290
Adrian Peterson44240
Chester Taylor33200
Jimmy Kleinsasser2280
Visanthe Shiancoe1311

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/3015212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith24833.50
Calvin Johnson2168.00
Maurice Morris2157.50
Aaron Brown4102.50
Matthew Stafford177.00
Yamon Figurs1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson57511
Brandon Pettigrew45400
Dennis Northcutt26150
Will Heller23100
Kevin Smith23100
Aaron Brown1230
Casey Fitzsimmons1120
Bryant Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.93