Closing spread
MIN -10
Total
45
Model margin
-3.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.169
- 45.1%Success rate39.2%
- +0.239EPA / dropback-0.183
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.144
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- +5.77CPOE-6.85
- 45.4%Third-down rate35.8%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 2.31Points / drive1.11
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/27 | 155 | 2 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 15 | 92 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Berrian | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Sidney Rice | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/30 | 152 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 24 | 83 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Yamon Figurs | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Casey Fitzsimmons | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.93