2009 · Week 2

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

48·22

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Kevin Kolb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NO -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapEagles
  • +0.118EPA / play+0.046
  • 48.1%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.231EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.028
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +6.47CPOE+0.05
  • 45.6%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 2.36Points / drive2.04
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3PHI @ NO15–12PHI
2022 · W17NO @ PHI20–10NO
2021 · W11NO @ PHI29–40PHI
2020 · W14NO @ PHI21–24PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ NO14–20NO
2018 · W11PHI @ NO7–48NO
2015 · W5NO @ PHI17–39PHI
2013 · playoffsNO @ PHI26–24NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–PHI
NOQ1 15:00874Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 10:54485Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 9:0336Punt7–7
PHIQ1 7:57517Punt7–7
NOQ1 5:15948Field goal10–7
PHIQ1 1:5435Punt10–7
NOQ1 0:57956Turnover10–7
PHIQ2 10:581473Field goal10–10
NOQ2 2:3838Punt10–10
PHIQ2 1:4035Punt10–10
NOQ2 1:20254Touchdown17–10
PHIQ2 0:43665Field goal17–13
PHIQ3 15:0000Touchdown17–13
NOQ3 14:49322Touchdown24–13
PHIQ3 13:3924Turnover24–13
NOQ3 12:58424Touchdown31–13
PHIQ3 11:3934Punt31–13
NOQ3 10:261170Field goal34–13
PHIQ3 4:10835Touchdown34–20
NOQ3 0:2939Punt34–20
PHIQ4 13:4631Punt34–20
NOQ4 12:50652Touchdown41–20
PHIQ4 9:361276Turnover on downs41–20
NOQ4 5:124-2Safety41–22
PHIQ4 3:35861Opp touchdown48–22
PHIQ4 0:55432Turnover48–22

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees25/3431131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Bell17865.11
Reggie Bush10333.31
Robert Meachem11515.00
Drew Brees1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston88982
Devery Henderson34710
Jeremy Shockey47490
Reggie Bush35420
David Thomas23190
Robert Meachem12110
Mike Bell1190
Pierre Thomas11-40

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb31/5139123
Brian Westbrook0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook13524.00
LeSean McCoy5183.60
DeSean Jackson3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek8111040
DeSean Jackson491011
Jason Avant78791
Kevin Curtis39440
LeSean McCoy45370
Brian Westbrook35140
Jeremy Maclin23120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.04
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.34