Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.046
- 48.1%Success rate43.1%
- +0.231EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.028
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- +6.47CPOE+0.05
- 45.6%Third-down rate37.2%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 2.36Points / drive2.04
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 25/34 | 311 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 17 | 86 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 8 | 8 | 98 | 2 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 4 | 71 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 31/51 | 391 | 2 | 3 |
| Brian Westbrook | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 8 | 11 | 104 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 9 | 101 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 7 | 8 | 79 | 1 |
| Kevin Curtis | 3 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.34