Closing spread
KC -1.5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 24/39 | 241 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 24 | 78 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Dantrell Savage | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wade | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Dantrell Savage | 6 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Sean Ryan | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.