Closing spread
KC -1.5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutChaz SchilensWRFoot· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutNick MillerWRShin· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableJohnnie Lee HigginsWRShoulder· DNP
- ProbableGreg EllisDEShoulder· Limited
- ProbableKirk MorrisonLBElbow· Full
- ProbableNnamdi AsomughaCBWrist· Full
Chiefs
- QuestionableBrandon FlowersCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableMatt CasselQBKnee· Limited
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 14:10 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:31 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:26 | 16 | 69 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 2:01 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 0:41 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q2 11:34 | 13 | 58 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| KC | Q2 4:45 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 3:22 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–3 |
| KC | Q2 2:30 | 12 | 53 | End of half | 3–3 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 36 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| LV | Q3 11:31 | 6 | 13 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| KC | Q3 8:33 | 7 | 50 | Punt | 6–3 |
| LV | Q3 5:40 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–3 |
| KC | Q3 4:10 | 9 | 42 | Turnover | 6–3 |
| LV | Q4 14:10 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–3 |
| KC | Q4 12:36 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 6–3 |
| LV | Q4 9:21 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 6–3 |
| KC | Q4 7:01 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| LV | Q4 2:38 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| KC | Q4 1:07 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 13–10 |
| LV | Q4 0:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 24/39 | 241 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 24 | 78 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Dantrell Savage | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wade | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Dantrell Savage | 6 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Sean Ryan | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.