Closing spread
SF -1
Total
39.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.067
- 40.9%Success rate37.0%
- -0.082EPA / dropback-0.055
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.087
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.58CPOE-2.69
- 34.0%Third-down rate29.4%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.38Points / drive1.54
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 15/23 | 127 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 10/18 | 97 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 4 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 6 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 4 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| John Owens | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 3 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 19/26 | 144 | 0 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 207 | 12.9 | 2 |
| Shaun Hill | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Glen Coffee | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Isaac Bruce | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Glen Coffee | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.77