2009 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

10·23

49ers

San Francisco

QB Shaun Hill

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SF -1

Total

39.5

Model margin

+6.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.067
  • 40.9%Success rate37.0%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback-0.055
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.087
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -1.58CPOE-2.69
  • 34.0%Third-down rate29.4%
  • 46.1%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.54
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SEAQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:451250Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 5:38617Punt0–9
SFQ1 2:48179Touchdown0–10
SEAQ1 2:3634Punt0–10
SFQ1 1:2631Punt0–10
SEAQ2 14:49957Field goal3–10
SFQ2 10:04735Punt3–10
SEAQ2 6:2033Punt3–10
SFQ2 5:06418Field goal3–13
SEAQ2 2:571170Touchdown10–13
SFQ2 0:2211End of half10–13
SFQ3 15:00180Touchdown10–20
SEAQ3 14:4934Punt10–20
SFQ3 13:0838Punt10–20
SEAQ3 11:42736Punt10–20
SFQ3 7:31722Punt10–20
SEAQ3 2:3040Turnover10–20
SFQ3 1:201772Field goal10–23
SEAQ4 6:5337Punt10–23
SFQ4 5:3835Punt10–23
SEAQ4 5:111360Turnover on downs10–23
SFQ4 2:1138Punt10–23
SEAQ4 0:23229End of half10–23

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace15/2312711
Matt Hasselbeck10/189700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett5357.00
Matt Hasselbeck3124.00
Julius Jones8111.40
Edgerrin James263.00
Justin Griffith111.00
Seneca Wallace410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh49620
Justin Forsett66570
Nate Burleson410460
John Carlson68460
Deon Butler11150
John Owens0200
Justin Griffith1200
Julius Jones33-21

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun Hill19/2614400
Micheal Spurlock0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore1620712.92
Shaun Hill11717.00
Glen Coffee9131.40
Micheal Spurlock133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Gore55390
Isaac Bruce48350
Vernon Davis26320
Glen Coffee22160
Arnaz Battle1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.1%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.8%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.09
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.77