Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Packers
- OutAtari BigbySKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutBrandon JacksonRBAnkle· DNP
- OutChad CliftonTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableB.J. RajiDEAnkle· Full
- QuestionableJeremy ThompsonLBKnee· Full
- QuestionableKorey HallRBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableMason CrosbyKAbdomen· DNP
- ProbableAaron KampmanLBHand· Full
- ProbableJarrett BushCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableNick CollinsSChest· Full
Rams
- DoubtfulJason SmithTKnee· DNP
- ProbableJason BrownCKnee· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 3-12 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 30 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 10:55 | 9 | 22 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:57 | 4 | 6 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 3:58 | 4 | -10 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:13 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| GB | Q1 1:57 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 9–0 |
| LA | Q2 15:00 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 9–0 |
| GB | Q2 12:47 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 16–0 |
| LA | Q2 9:48 | 10 | 63 | Touchdown | 16–7 |
| GB | Q2 4:43 | 5 | 89 | Touchdown | 23–7 |
| LA | Q2 1:52 | 9 | 84 | Touchdown | 23–14 |
| GB | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–14 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 23–14 |
| LA | Q3 13:57 | 11 | 46 | Field goal | 23–17 |
| GB | Q3 8:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 23–17 |
| LA | Q3 7:56 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 23–17 |
| GB | Q3 6:33 | 9 | 49 | Punt | 23–17 |
| LA | Q3 3:03 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 23–17 |
| GB | Q3 1:12 | 7 | 84 | Touchdown | 29–17 |
| LA | Q4 12:13 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 29–17 |
| GB | Q4 10:23 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 29–17 |
| LA | Q4 7:31 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 29–17 |
| GB | Q4 6:12 | 3 | 26 | Touchdown | 36–17 |
| LA | Q4 4:43 | 8 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 36–17 |
| GB | Q4 2:27 | 5 | 25 | End of half | 36–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 13/23 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 26 | 99 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Wynn | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 3 | 103 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 7 | 95 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.