Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 3-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 13/23 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 26 | 99 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Wynn | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 3 | 103 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 7 | 95 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.