Closing spread
SD -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
+4.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. SD are 6-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 10/19 | 92 | 0 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 8/12 | 54 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Davone Bess | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 7 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.62
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.92
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.