2009 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

24·48

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

CHI -9.5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • -0.169EPA / play-0.089
  • 39.2%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.183EPA / dropback-0.064
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.135
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -6.85CPOE+0.30
  • 35.8%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 46.3%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 1.11Points / drive1.57
  • 3.7%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
DETQ1 15:00960Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 10:50573Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 8:511187Touchdown14–7
CHIQ1 5:0336Punt14–7
DETQ1 3:396-1Punt14–7
CHIQ1 0:29335Touchdown14–14
DETQ2 14:143-4Turnover14–14
CHIQ2 12:3747Touchdown14–21
DETQ2 10:54428Punt14–21
CHIQ2 9:01614Punt14–21
DETQ2 4:5110103Touchdown21–21
CHIQ2 0:26518End of half21–27
CHIQ3 15:0000Touchdown21–28
DETQ3 14:483-6Punt21–28
CHIQ3 12:1934Field goal21–31
DETQ3 10:183-4Punt21–31
CHIQ3 8:3037Punt21–31
DETQ3 6:5932Turnover21–31
CHIQ3 5:40515Field goal21–34
DETQ3 2:3335Punt21–34
CHIQ3 0:5832Punt21–34
DETQ4 15:001364Field goal24–34
CHIQ4 8:15447Touchdown24–41
DETQ4 6:46724Turnover on downs24–41
CHIQ4 5:12748Touchdown24–48
DETQ4 1:57540End of half24–48

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3629611
Daunte Culpepper6/115400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith19301.62
Matthew Stafford22010.00
Maurice Morris11313.00
Calvin Johnson11212.00
Aaron Brown133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson8121330
Brandon Pettigrew410640
Will Heller35531
Bryant Johnson36270
Kevin Smith44210
Aaron Brown11140
Casey Fitzsimmons22100
Dennis Northcutt1240
Maurice Morris1210

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler18/2814120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte1212110.11
Garrett Wolfe5224.41
Jay Cutler382.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Earl Bennett22320
Johnny Knox58310
Kellen Davis22201
Matt Forte23190
Rashied Davis22160
Garrett Wolfe11120
Desmond Clark2280
Devin Hester1120
Greg Olsen1711

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.81