Closing spread
CHI -9.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.169EPA / play-0.089
- 39.2%Success rate39.6%
- -0.183EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.135
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.4%
- -6.85CPOE+0.30
- 35.8%Third-down rate37.3%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.11Points / drive1.57
- 3.7%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/36 | 296 | 1 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 6/11 | 54 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 19 | 30 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 8 | 12 | 133 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 3 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Bryant Johnson | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Casey Fitzsimmons | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 18/28 | 141 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 12 | 121 | 10.1 | 1 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 5 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Rashied Davis | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.81