2009 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

23·30

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -4.5

Total

46

Model margin

+0.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.124EPA / play+0.085
  • 44.9%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.018EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +3.74CPOE+5.77
  • 47.0%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
  • 2.22Points / drive2.31
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
GBQ1 15:001056Turnover0–0
MINQ1 9:221252Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 3:20367Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 2:163-4Punt7–7
GBQ1 0:57826Turnover7–7
MINQ2 11:421172Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 4:593-2Punt13–14
MINQ2 3:301-2Opp touchdown14–14
MINQ2 3:18782Touchdown14–21
GBQ2 0:30529End of half14–21
MINQ3 15:00880Touchdown14–28
GBQ3 10:401481Turnover on downs14–28
MINQ3 2:121141Punt14–28
GBQ4 12:5339Punt14–28
MINQ4 11:0339Punt14–28
GBQ4 8:493-1Safety14–30
MINQ4 7:2136Punt14–30
GBQ4 4:59696Touchdown20–30
MINQ4 3:4030Punt20–30
GBQ4 3:10863Field goal23–30
MINQ4 0:5500End of half23–30

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/3738421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant11514.60
Aaron Rodgers2168.00
DeShawn Wynn2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermichael Finley671281
Donald Driver46550
Ryan Grant44500
Jordy Nelson34471
James Jones12340
Greg Jennings36310
Donald Lee45280
DeShawn Wynn13110

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre24/3127130
Sidney Rice0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson25552.21
Chester Taylor284.00
Jeff Dugan122.00
Brett Favre2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bernard Berrian610751
Sidney Rice56701
Percy Harvin22390
Chester Taylor35350
Jeff Dugan22260
Visanthe Shiancoe33181
Adrian Peterson1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.82