Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
46
Model margin
+0.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play+0.085
- 44.9%Success rate45.1%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.018EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.4%
- +3.74CPOE+5.77
- 47.0%Third-down rate45.4%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 2.22Points / drive2.31
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/37 | 384 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Wynn | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermichael Finley | 6 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| James Jones | 1 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| DeShawn Wynn | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/31 | 271 | 3 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 55 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Berrian | 6 | 10 | 75 | 1 |
| Sidney Rice | 5 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 3 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.82