Closing spread
SF -9.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutJames ButlerSKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulJason SmithTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableMarc BulgerQBright Shoulder· DNP
- QuestionableRon BartellCBThigh· Limited
- ProbableAlex BarronTThigh· Limited
49ers
- OutFrank GoreRBAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutReggie SmithSGroin· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DNPAubrayo FranklinDTNot Injury Related
- DNPJustin SmithDENot Injury Related
- ProbableAdam SnyderTThumb· Full
- ProbableDavid BaasGAnkle· Full
- ProbableJeff UlbrichLBThigh· Full
- ProbableJoe StaleyTThigh· Full
- ProbableShawntae SpencerCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableTakeo SpikesLBShin· Full
- ProbableVernon DavisTEShin· Full
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:52 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:35 | 9 | 62 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 5:13 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:26 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 0:19 | 10 | 34 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q2 9:40 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q2 8:13 | 5 | 21 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 5:27 | 10 | 37 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q2 1:02 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 0:32 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 0–7 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 6 | -5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q3 12:38 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q3 10:16 | 7 | 48 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LA | Q3 7:03 | 3 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 0–21 |
| LA | Q3 5:31 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–21 |
| SF | Q3 3:45 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LA | Q3 2:48 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–21 |
| SF | Q3 1:19 | 5 | 43 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| LA | Q4 14:14 | 2 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 0–35 |
| LA | Q4 13:55 | 10 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 0–35 |
| SF | Q4 8:26 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 0–35 |
| LA | Q4 3:38 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–35 |
| SF | Q4 1:48 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 0–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 14/24 | 152 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glen Coffee | 24 | 74 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Glen Coffee | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Isaac Bruce | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.