Closing spread
SF -9.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 14/24 | 152 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glen Coffee | 24 | 74 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Glen Coffee | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Isaac Bruce | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.