Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
42
Model margin
+4.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
6.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.008
- 40.8%Success rate43.2%
- +0.042EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.026EPA / rush+0.036
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- -2.63CPOE+1.59
- 41.0%Third-down rate46.1%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.79Points / drive1.59
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 29/48 | 284 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 16 | 83 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 7 | 11 | 105 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 7 | 12 | 66 | 1 |
| Bo Scaife | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Mark Jones | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 27/37 | 323 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Mike Thomas | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sims-Walker | 7 | 11 | 91 | 2 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 5 | 76 | 1 |
| Torry Holt | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Ernest Wilford | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
6.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.05