2009 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

17·37

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

42

Model margin

+4.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

6.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.008
  • 40.8%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.026EPA / rush+0.036
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -2.63CPOE+1.59
  • 41.0%Third-down rate46.1%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.59
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
TENQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:59745Field goal0–3
TENQ1 10:0238Punt0–3
JAXQ1 7:57335Touchdown0–10
TENQ1 6:3439Punt0–10
JAXQ1 5:05634Punt0–10
TENQ1 1:341473Field goal3–10
JAXQ2 9:11346Touchdown3–17
TENQ2 7:3539Punt3–17
JAXQ2 6:29944Field goal3–20
TENQ2 3:21218Turnover3–20
JAXQ2 2:35966Touchdown3–27
TENQ2 0:27218Turnover3–27
JAXQ2 0:101-11Missed field goal3–27
JAXQ3 15:00951Field goal3–30
TENQ3 10:05953Turnover3–30
JAXQ3 5:46640Punt3–30
TENQ3 1:56880Touchdown9–30
JAXQ3 0:19846Turnover9–30
TENQ4 11:2334Punt9–30
JAXQ4 10:163-3Punt9–30
TENQ4 8:551177Touchdown17–30
JAXQ4 5:28340Touchdown17–37
TENQ4 5:02728Turnover on downs17–37
JAXQ4 3:46312End of half17–37

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins29/4828412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson16835.20
Kerry Collins11010.01
LenDale White221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt7111050
Nate Washington712661
Bo Scaife36250
Alge Crumpler33230
Justin Gage15150
Chris Johnson34110
Jared Cook23110
Mark Jones1290
LenDale White1170

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard27/3732330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings9535.90
David Garrard8384.80
Maurice Jones-Drew6142.31
Mike Thomas393.00
Zach Miller133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Sims-Walker711912
Marcedes Lewis45761
Torry Holt35420
Mike Thomas55310
Ernest Wilford13290
Maurice Jones-Drew33260
Jarett Dillard11140
Zach Miller33140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

6.66%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.05