2009 · Week 5

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

45·10

49ers

San Francisco

QB Shaun Hill

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SF -1

Total

40

Model margin

+2.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge map49ers
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.067
  • 43.4%Success rate37.0%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.055
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.087
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -1.75CPOE-2.69
  • 42.8%Third-down rate29.4%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.54
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7SF @ ATL20–29ATL
2025 · W7ATL @ SF10–20SF
2022 · W6SF @ ATL14–28ATL
2021 · W15ATL @ SF13–31SF
2019 · W15ATL @ SF29–22ATL
2016 · W15SF @ ATL13–41ATL
2015 · W9ATL @ SF16–17SF
2013 · W16ATL @ SF24–34SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–SF
ATLQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:5636Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 12:30421Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 11:0831Punt7–0
ATLQ1 9:37781Touchdown14–0
SFQ1 6:32778Touchdown14–7
ATLQ1 4:091024Punt14–7
SFQ2 14:53841Field goal14–10
ATLQ2 11:07310Turnover14–10
SFQ2 9:403-3Punt14–10
ATLQ2 8:22396Touchdown21–10
SFQ2 6:5900Touchdown21–10
ATLQ2 6:51338Touchdown28–10
SFQ2 5:4032Punt28–10
ATLQ2 4:46664Touchdown35–10
SFQ2 1:14528End of half35–10
SFQ3 15:00553Missed field goal35–10
ATLQ3 12:52835Turnover35–10
ATLQ3 9:31622Field goal38–10
SFQ3 5:5036Punt38–10
ATLQ3 4:5146Punt38–10
SFQ3 2:4535Punt38–10
ATLQ3 1:541473Touchdown45–10
SFQ4 8:201445Turnover on downs45–10
ATLQ4 1:5322Punt45–10
SFQ4 0:26317End of half45–10

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3232921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner22974.43
Jerious Norwood12443.70
Matt Ryan231.51
Chris Redman2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White8102102
Tony Gonzalez610550
Michael Jenkins24350
Justin Peelle11120
Brian Finneran1180
Marty Booker0100
Jerious Norwood11-60

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun Hill15/3819801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Hill45313.30
Glen Coffee12453.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Morgan49780
Vernon Davis512510
Delanie Walker13390
Glen Coffee45210
Arnaz Battle1190
Isaac Bruce0400
Brandon Jones0200
Jason Hill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.09
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.57