Closing spread
SF -1
Total
40
Model margin
+2.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.067
- 43.4%Success rate37.0%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.055
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.75CPOE-2.69
- 42.8%Third-down rate29.4%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.97Points / drive1.54
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. SF are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/32 | 329 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 22 | 97 | 4.4 | 3 |
| Jerious Norwood | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Chris Redman | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 8 | 10 | 210 | 2 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 10 | 55 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 15/38 | 198 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 4 | 53 | 13.3 | 0 |
| Glen Coffee | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morgan | 4 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 12 | 51 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Glen Coffee | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaac Bruce | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.09
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.57