2009 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

27·31

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3

Total

36

Model margin

-0.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.004
  • 39.7%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.151EPA / dropback-0.013
  • +0.011EPA / rush+0.023
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -5.62CPOE+0.24
  • 37.4%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.82
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001285Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 7:31955Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 3:51562Field goal7–10
NYJQ1 0:571122Punt7–10
MIAQ2 10:30414Punt7–10
NYJQ2 8:111172Field goal10–10
MIAQ2 2:0547Punt10–10
NYJQ2 1:01431Field goal13–10
MIAQ2 0:0400End of half13–10
NYJQ3 15:00518Punt13–10
MIAQ3 12:14420Punt13–10
NYJQ3 10:1452Punt13–10
MIAQ3 7:581564Touchdown13–17
NYJQ4 14:17488Touchdown19–17
NYJQ4 12:2011Touchdown20–17
NYJQ4 12:1700Touchdown20–17
MIAQ4 12:17584Touchdown20–24
NYJQ4 10:1036Punt20–24
MIAQ4 8:4632Punt20–24
NYJQ4 6:55514Touchdown27–24
MIAQ4 5:121375Touchdown27–31
NYJQ4 0:0610End of half27–31

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez12/2417210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leon Washington10444.40
Thomas Jones13423.22
Brad Smith11212.00
Shonn Greene382.70
Mark Sanchez263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Clowney44720
Braylon Edwards59641
Brad Smith12190
Leon Washington12130
Jerricho Cotchery1240
Thomas Jones0200
Dustin Keller0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne20/2624120
Ronnie Brown1/22100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown21743.52
Ricky Williams11686.20
Pat White166.00
Patrick Cobbs1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricky Williams33700
Ted Ginn22571
Anthony Fasano47381
Greg Camarillo33330
Davone Bess33180
Joey Haynos12170
Ronnie Brown34140
Brian Hartline12100
Patrick Cobbs1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.24