Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
36
Model margin
-0.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.004
- 39.7%Success rate45.9%
- -0.151EPA / dropback-0.013
- +0.011EPA / rush+0.023
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.2%
- -5.62CPOE+0.24
- 37.4%Third-down rate48.8%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.61Points / drive1.82
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 12/24 | 172 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Clowney | 4 | 4 | 72 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 5 | 9 | 64 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 20/26 | 241 | 2 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1/2 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Ricky Williams | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Pat White | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 3 | 70 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 2 | 57 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 7 | 38 | 1 |
| Greg Camarillo | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.24