2009 · Week 5
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
CAR -5
Total
38
Model margin
+5.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play-0.058
- 41.0%Success rate40.6%
- +0.023EPA / dropback-0.092
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.022
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.9%
- +1.16CPOE-3.62
- 39.7%Third-down rate37.2%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.38Points / drive1.39
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 17/23 | 145 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 19 | 57 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 16/25 | 181 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 18 | 40 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 5 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.96