Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play-0.107
- 45.3%Success rate40.9%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.082
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.150
- 9.9%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.71CPOE-1.58
- 36.7%Third-down rate34.0%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
- 1.75Points / drive1.38
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 32/41 | 276 | 2 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 2/2 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Chris Wells | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 13 | 15 | 100 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 7 | 9 | 77 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Sean Morey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 10/29 | 112 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | 2 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 2 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.26