2009 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

27·3

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 58°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.026EPA / play-0.107
  • 45.3%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback-0.082
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.150
  • 9.9%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +3.71CPOE-1.58
  • 36.7%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.38
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
ARIQ1 15:001581Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 4:1800Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 4:15323Touchdown14–0
SEAQ1 3:0733Turnover14–0
ARIQ1 2:24722Field goal17–0
SEAQ2 13:38523Punt17–0
ARIQ2 11:06527Punt17–0
SEAQ2 8:09859Field goal17–3
ARIQ2 3:57548Turnover17–3
SEAQ2 1:2335Punt17–3
ARIQ2 0:38423Turnover17–3
SEAQ3 15:003-1Punt17–3
ARIQ3 12:5939Punt17–3
SEAQ3 10:4440Punt17–3
ARIQ3 9:56629Punt17–3
SEAQ3 5:573-7Punt17–3
ARIQ3 5:08541Touchdown24–3
SEAQ3 2:54532Punt24–3
ARIQ3 1:04924Punt24–3
SEAQ4 10:58510Punt24–3
ARIQ4 9:2335Punt24–3
SEAQ4 7:0630Turnover24–3
ARIQ4 6:4332Field goal27–3
SEAQ4 6:0530Punt27–3
ARIQ4 5:36610Punt27–3
SEAQ4 1:0324End of half27–3

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner32/4127621
Matt Leinart2/21600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower13322.51
Chris Wells12292.40
Matt Leinart111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald13151001
Steve Breaston79771
Anquan Boldin67540
Tim Hightower44260
Jerheme Urban23180
Ben Patrick11100
Chris Wells1170
Sean Morey0100
Anthony Becht0100
LaRod Stephens-Howling0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck10/2911201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones551.00
Justin Forsett242.00
Edgerrin James331.00
Matt Hasselbeck122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Carlson26550
Nate Burleson25400
T.J. Houshmandzadeh48340
Justin Forsett11160
Deion Branch2790
Justin Griffith0100
Deon Butler0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.26