2009 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Daunte Culpepper

0·26

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

GB -14

Total

48.5

Model margin

+9.2est.

GB perspective

Push chance

3.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • -0.169EPA / play+0.124
  • 39.2%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.183EPA / dropback+0.213
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.018
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -6.85CPOE+3.74
  • 35.8%Third-down rate47.0%
  • 46.3%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.11Points / drive2.22
  • 3.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
GBQ1 15:00780Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 11:273-5Turnover0–7
GBQ1 10:08632Touchdown0–14
DETQ1 7:203-4Punt0–14
GBQ1 5:58723Punt0–14
DETQ1 1:46640Turnover on downs0–14
GBQ1 0:08620Punt0–14
DETQ2 12:1637Punt0–14
GBQ2 10:26523Field goal0–17
DETQ2 7:22518Punt0–17
GBQ2 5:15519Field goal0–20
DETQ2 1:56623Turnover on downs0–20
GBQ2 0:58430Field goal0–23
DETQ2 0:0500End of half0–23
DETQ3 15:005-2Punt0–23
GBQ3 13:001070Field goal0–26
DETQ3 7:4323Turnover0–26
GBQ3 6:52861Turnover0–26
DETQ3 2:47639Punt0–26
GBQ4 14:21521Turnover0–26
DETQ4 11:281030Turnover0–26
GBQ4 7:521057End of half0–26

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton5/115702
Daunte Culpepper6/144801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith15614.10
Aaron Brown2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Northcutt56400
Bryant Johnson24270
Will Heller13220
Derrick Williams1370
John Standeford1350
Kevin Smith0200
Brandon Pettigrew0300

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers29/3735821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant24903.80
Aaron Rodgers393.00
Brandon Jackson263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver781070
Greg Jennings68640
James Jones23551
Jermichael Finley55540
Donald Lee34390
Ryan Grant34170
Brandon Jackson11120
Brett Swain0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +146.9%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.8%2.5%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

72.6%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.88
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+9.18