Closing spread
GB -14
Total
48.5
Model margin
+9.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.169EPA / play+0.124
- 39.2%Success rate44.9%
- -0.183EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.018
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- -6.85CPOE+3.74
- 35.8%Third-down rate47.0%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.11Points / drive2.22
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 5/11 | 57 | 0 | 2 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 6/14 | 48 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Northcutt | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Derrick Williams | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| John Standeford | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 29/37 | 358 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 24 | 90 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 7 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 3 | 55 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Brett Swain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.88
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+9.18