Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+6.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play+0.118
- 44.1%Success rate48.1%
- +0.178EPA / dropback+0.231
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.028
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.61CPOE+6.47
- 42.5%Third-down rate45.6%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 2.02Points / drive2.36
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NO are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 14/31 | 178 | 1 | 1 |
| David Carr | 4/5 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| David Carr | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 5 | 8 | 114 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 3 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/30 | 369 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 15 | 34 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 8 | 8 | 166 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 6 | 7 | 78 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 3 | 70 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.0%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.02