2009 · Week 6

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

27·48

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+6.0est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapSaints
  • +0.062EPA / play+0.118
  • 44.1%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.178EPA / dropback+0.231
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.028
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +2.61CPOE+6.47
  • 42.5%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.36
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–6 since 1999

NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NO are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NO @ NYG34–27NO
2025 · W5NYG @ NO14–26NO
2024 · W14NO @ NYG14–11NO
2023 · W15NYG @ NO6–24NO
2021 · W4NYG @ NO27–21NYG
2018 · W4NO @ NYG33–18NO
2016 · W2NO @ NYG13–16NYG
2015 · W8NYG @ NO49–52NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–NO
NOQ1 15:001570Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 7:19519Punt0–7
NOQ1 4:59680Touchdown0–14
NYGQ1 2:11519Field goal3–14
NOQ1 0:03457Touchdown3–20
NYGQ2 12:401058Touchdown10–20
NOQ2 7:41731Touchdown10–27
NYGQ2 5:04437Touchdown17–27
NOQ2 3:19770Turnover on downs17–27
NYGQ2 0:5529Turnover17–27
NOQ2 0:1827Touchdown17–34
NYGQ2 0:0900End of half17–34
NYGQ3 15:0031Punt17–34
NOQ3 13:0933Punt17–34
NYGQ3 11:58525Turnover17–34
NOQ3 9:211081Touchdown17–41
NYGQ3 4:10310Punt17–41
NOQ3 2:38521Punt17–41
NYGQ4 14:521170Field goal20–41
NOQ4 12:09875Touchdown20–48
NYGQ4 7:0432Punt20–48
NOQ4 5:5735Punt20–48
NYGQ4 4:15350Touchdown27–48
NOQ4 3:153-7Punt27–48
NYGQ4 1:05426End of half27–48

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning14/3117811
David Carr4/57210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw10484.81
Brandon Jacobs7334.70
David Carr144.00
Eli Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks581141
Mario Manningham49501
Steve Smith46440
Domenik Hixon37220
Kevin Boss12180
Brandon Jacobs1220
Ahmad Bradshaw0100
Travis Beckum0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees23/3036940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas15724.80
Mike Bell15342.31
Reggie Bush6172.81
Drew Brees166.00
Robert Meachem122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston881661
Lance Moore67781
Robert Meachem23701
Jeremy Shockey45371
Reggie Bush1370
Devery Henderson1360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.0%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.02