2009 · Week 7 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
PHI -9
Total
38
Model margin
+0.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play-0.047
- 43.1%Success rate41.0%
- +0.086EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.168
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.1%
- +0.05CPOE+1.16
- 37.2%Third-down rate39.7%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 2.04Points / drive1.38
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 15/25 | 156 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 67 | 67.0 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | -5 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 5 | 69 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 29/43 | 284 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davis | 8 | 10 | 78 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 6 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 3 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.45