Closing spread
SD -5.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 10/25 | 97 | 1 | 3 |
| Matt Gutierrez | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dantrell Savage | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wade | 4 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Lance Long | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| Larry Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Sean Ryan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.