Closing spread
SD -5.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutNick HardwickCAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulKevin BurnettLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio CromartieCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableCraig DavisWRIllness· DNP
- QuestionableJacob HesterRBIllness· Full
- QuestionableTravis JohnsonDEGroin· DNP
- ProbableShawne MerrimanLBFoot· DNP
- ProbableJyles TuckerLBIllness· Full
- ProbableLaDainian TomlinsonRBIllness· Full
- ProbableLouis VasquezGKnee· Full
- ProbableMike ScifresPGroin· Full
- ProbableStephen CooperLBKnee· Full
- ProbableVaughn MartinDEHamstring· Full
Chiefs
- QuestionableBranden AlbertTAnkle· Limited
- DNPMike GoffGNot Injury Related
- ProbableBrian WatersGAnkle· Full
- ProbableJarrad PageSShoulder· Full
- ProbableRyan O'CallaghanTShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:54 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:32 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:32 | 6 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 4:55 | 8 | 41 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| KC | Q1 1:23 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:16 | 10 | 86 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| KC | Q2 9:49 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 17–0 |
| LAC | Q2 7:05 | 7 | 66 | Missed field goal | 17–0 |
| KC | Q2 3:07 | 8 | 42 | Missed field goal | 17–0 |
| LAC | Q2 1:07 | 6 | 45 | Field goal | 20–0 |
| KC | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–0 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 56 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| LAC | Q3 9:48 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 20–7 |
| KC | Q3 8:07 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–7 |
| LAC | Q3 7:11 | 3 | 64 | Touchdown | 27–7 |
| KC | Q3 5:45 | 5 | 34 | Turnover | 27–7 |
| LAC | Q3 3:47 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 27–7 |
| KC | Q3 2:47 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 27–7 |
| LAC | Q3 2:31 | 5 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 27–7 |
| KC | Q3 0:37 | 5 | 11 | Turnover | 27–7 |
| LAC | Q4 14:13 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 30–7 |
| KC | Q4 11:37 | 4 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 37–7 |
| KC | Q4 9:13 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 37–7 |
| LAC | Q4 7:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 37–7 |
| KC | Q4 4:52 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 37–7 |
| LAC | Q4 1:45 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 37–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 10/25 | 97 | 1 | 3 |
| Matt Gutierrez | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dantrell Savage | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wade | 4 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Lance Long | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| Larry Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Sean Ryan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.71
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.