2009 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

27·35

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -11

Total

56

Model margin

+3.0est.

NO perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • +0.041EPA / play+0.118
  • 43.4%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.231
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.028
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -1.75CPOE+6.47
  • 42.8%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.36
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:00877Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 11:031080Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 5:2665Punt7–7
NOQ1 2:302-10Opp touchdown14–7
NOQ1 2:141390Touchdown14–14
ATLQ2 10:38662Missed field goal14–14
NOQ2 7:33748Turnover14–14
ATLQ2 3:5934Punt14–14
NOQ2 2:46680Touchdown14–21
ATLQ2 1:0526Opp touchdown14–28
ATLQ2 0:42633Missed field goal14–28
NOQ3 15:0032Punt14–28
ATLQ3 13:51573Touchdown21–28
NOQ3 12:25843Missed field goal21–28
ATLQ3 8:29424Punt21–28
NOQ3 6:21619Punt21–28
ATLQ3 3:181375Field goal24–28
NOQ4 11:33310Turnover24–28
ATLQ4 10:00325Turnover24–28
NOQ4 8:301276Touchdown24–35
ATLQ4 3:03713Turnover on downs24–35
NOQ4 1:4230Turnover24–35
ATLQ4 1:23431Field goal27–35
NOQ4 0:2800Turnover27–35
ATLQ4 0:26214Turnover27–35
NOQ4 0:0300End of half27–35

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/4228913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner201517.51
Matt Ryan393.00
Eric Weems111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White4131081
Tony Gonzalez69890
Michael Jenkins49660
Aaron Stecker22120
Justin Peelle1140

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees25/3330821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas14916.51
Mike Bell17492.90
Drew Brees231.50
Reggie Bush231.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston66851
Jeremy Shockey56720
Robert Meachem22470
Devery Henderson46460
David Thomas25270
Lance Moore22110
Reggie Bush23110
Pierre Thomas2291

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.02