Closing spread
NO -11
Total
56
Model margin
+3.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.118
- 43.4%Success rate48.1%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.231
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.028
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- -1.75CPOE+6.47
- 42.8%Third-down rate45.6%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.97Points / drive2.36
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/42 | 289 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 20 | 151 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 4 | 13 | 108 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 9 | 89 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 4 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 25/33 | 308 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 14 | 91 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Mike Bell | 17 | 49 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 6 | 6 | 85 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 5 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.02