2009 · Week 8

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

34·21

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -10

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.058EPA / play-0.026
  • 40.6%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.092EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.143
  • 10.9%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -3.62CPOE+3.71
  • 37.2%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.75
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CAR @ ARI22–27ARI
2024 · W16ARI @ CAR30–36CAR
2022 · W4ARI @ CAR26–16ARI
2021 · W10CAR @ ARI34–10CAR
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2019 · W3CAR @ ARI38–20CAR
2016 · W8ARI @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · playoffsARI @ CAR15–49CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ARI
CARQ1 15:001574Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 7:221181Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 0:47387Touchdown14–7
ARIQ2 14:53425Punt14–7
CARQ2 13:153-3Punt14–7
ARIQ2 11:27410Punt14–7
CARQ2 9:35475Touchdown21–7
ARIQ2 7:3310Opp touchdown28–7
ARIQ2 7:28837Turnover28–7
CARQ2 4:52541Punt28–7
ARIQ2 1:53212Turnover28–7
CARQ2 1:2326End of half28–7
ARIQ3 15:0030Punt28–7
CARQ3 14:3135Punt28–7
ARIQ3 12:341172Touchdown28–14
CARQ3 6:1338Punt28–14
ARIQ3 5:0337Punt28–14
CARQ3 3:24937Punt28–14
ARIQ4 14:0310Turnover28–14
CARQ4 13:5433Field goal31–14
ARIQ4 11:40624Touchdown31–21
CARQ4 9:4435Punt31–21
ARIQ4 7:4026Turnover31–21
CARQ4 7:02618Field goal34–21
ARIQ4 2:401246Turnover34–21
CARQ4 0:0600End of half34–21

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme7/149010
Matt Moore0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams231586.90
Jonathan Stewart17875.12
Steve Smith11717.00
Jake Delhomme177.00
Matt Moore1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith37561
Dwayne Jarrett22220
Gary Barnidge1470
Jeff King1150

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner27/4624225

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells8475.90
Tim Hightower8394.91
Kurt Warner188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald610660
Steve Breaston68570
Tim Hightower810570
Anquan Boldin36230
Ben Patrick23181
LaRod Stephens-Howling12141
Anthony Becht1170
Jerheme Urban0300
Chris Wells0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.21