Closing spread
ARI -10
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play-0.026
- 40.6%Success rate45.3%
- -0.092EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.143
- 10.9%Explosive rate9.9%
- -3.62CPOE+3.71
- 37.2%Third-down rate36.7%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 1.39Points / drive1.75
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 7/14 | 90 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 23 | 158 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 17 | 87 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 3 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 27/46 | 242 | 2 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 6 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 8 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.21