Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
44
Model margin
+4.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.010
- 43.2%Success rate40.8%
- -0.010EPA / dropback+0.042
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.026
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.59CPOE-2.63
- 46.1%Third-down rate41.0%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.59Points / drive1.79
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 14/27 | 139 | 0 | 2 |
| Luke McCown | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 8 | 177 | 22.1 | 2 |
| David Garrard | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Ernest Wilford | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Torry Holt | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 15/18 | 125 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 24 | 228 | 9.5 | 2 |
| LenDale White | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gage | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.15