2009 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

13·30

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

44

Model margin

+4.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.010
  • 43.2%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback+0.042
  • +0.036EPA / rush-0.026
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.59CPOE-2.63
  • 46.1%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.79
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
TENQ1 15:001250Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 7:4635Punt0–3
TENQ1 6:411045Punt0–3
JAXQ1 0:475-12Punt0–3
TENQ2 13:50854Touchdown0–10
JAXQ2 9:1937Turnover0–10
TENQ2 8:11427Field goal0–13
JAXQ2 5:50180Touchdown7–13
TENQ2 5:3339Punt7–13
JAXQ2 3:401247Punt7–13
TENQ2 0:1514End of half7–13
JAXQ3 15:00179Touchdown13–13
TENQ3 14:37774Touchdown13–20
JAXQ3 11:0038Punt13–20
TENQ3 8:45640Field goal13–23
JAXQ3 5:00836Punt13–23
TENQ3 0:59395Touchdown13–30
JAXQ4 14:46556Turnover13–30
TENQ4 12:1834Punt13–30
JAXQ4 10:07517Punt13–30
TENQ4 8:04830Punt13–30
JAXQ4 2:1977Punt13–30
TENQ4 1:0400End of half13–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard14/2713902
Luke McCown0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew817722.12
David Garrard3227.30
Rashad Jennings382.70
Mike Thomas177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas46550
Jarett Dillard12230
Marcedes Lewis11200
Ernest Wilford25180
Torry Holt26170
Mike Sims-Walker2390
Rashad Jennings1110
Maurice Jones-Drew14-40

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young15/1812510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson242289.52
LenDale White13473.60
Vince Young12302.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Gage35410
Bo Scaife44270
Nate Washington22221
Alge Crumpler22140
Chris Johnson23110
Kenny Britt1170
Jared Cook1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.15