2009 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

30·25

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

Total

40

Model margin

+5.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.060
  • 45.9%Success rate39.7%
  • -0.013EPA / dropback-0.151
  • +0.023EPA / rush+0.011
  • 7.2%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.24CPOE-5.62
  • 48.8%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.61
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:5048Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:50514Punt0–0
MIAQ1 8:1932Punt0–0
NYJQ1 6:45825Punt0–0
MIAQ1 2:4531Punt0–0
NYJQ1 1:381155Field goal0–3
MIAQ2 12:20624Punt0–3
NYJQ2 9:11413Punt0–3
MIAQ2 7:0432Punt0–3
NYJQ2 5:263-3Punt0–3
MIAQ2 4:09415Field goal3–3
NYJQ2 1:5534Punt3–3
MIAQ2 1:09711Turnover on downs3–3
MIAQ3 15:003-4Punt3–3
NYJQ3 13:34614Field goal9–6
MIAQ3 10:2400Touchdown10–6
NYJQ3 10:10620Opp touchdown17–6
NYJQ3 7:3239Punt17–6
NYJQ3 5:48529Touchdown23–13
MIAQ3 3:2600Touchdown24–13
NYJQ3 3:09374Touchdown24–19
MIAQ3 1:351462Touchdown30–19
NYJQ4 8:48776Touchdown30–25
MIAQ4 5:523-12Punt30–25
NYJQ4 3:391240Turnover on downs30–25
MIAQ4 1:0600End of half30–25

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne12/2111210
Ronnie Brown0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams8273.40
Ronnie Brown11272.50
Chad Henne3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricky Williams22410
Joey Haynos24201
Davone Bess45180
Anthony Fasano25160
Greg Camarillo12150
Ronnie Brown1220
Ted Ginn0100
Brian Hartline0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez20/3526520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones271023.80
Shonn Greene8182.30
Mark Sanchez461.51
Jerricho Cotchery111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dustin Keller813761
Braylon Edwards48741
Jerricho Cotchery38700
Thomas Jones11280
David Clowney33160
Shonn Greene0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.9%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.21