Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+5.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.060
- 45.9%Success rate39.7%
- -0.013EPA / dropback-0.151
- +0.023EPA / rush+0.011
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.24CPOE-5.62
- 48.8%Third-down rate37.4%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.82Points / drive1.61
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 12/21 | 112 | 1 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Davone Bess | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 20/35 | 265 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 27 | 102 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 8 | 13 | 76 | 1 |
| Braylon Edwards | 4 | 8 | 74 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.21