2009 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

38·26

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.124
  • 45.1%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback+0.213
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.018
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +5.77CPOE+3.74
  • 45.4%Third-down rate47.0%
  • 68.8%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.22
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
GBQ1 15:00736Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:37626Punt0–0
GBQ1 8:153-3Punt0–0
MINQ1 7:1110Turnover0–0
GBQ1 7:0332Field goal0–3
MINQ1 5:0577Touchdown7–3
GBQ1 1:1734Punt7–3
MINQ2 14:19751Touchdown14–3
GBQ2 10:423-8Punt14–3
MINQ2 9:09536Turnover on downs14–3
GBQ2 6:53815Punt14–3
MINQ2 2:20737Field goal17–3
GBQ2 0:0911End of half17–3
MINQ3 15:00573Touchdown24–3
GBQ3 13:081058Field goal24–6
MINQ3 8:2800Touchdown24–6
GBQ3 8:23541Touchdown24–13
MINQ3 6:3030Punt24–13
GBQ3 5:57784Touchdown24–20
MINQ3 1:57729Touchdown31–20
GBQ4 13:35774Touchdown31–26
MINQ4 10:26532Punt31–26
GBQ4 8:13533Missed field goal31–26
MINQ4 5:38459Touchdown38–26
GBQ4 3:48811Turnover on downs38–26
MINQ4 2:3845Turnover on downs38–26
GBQ4 0:2713End of half38–26

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre17/2824440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson25973.91
Chester Taylor5122.40
Percy Harvin122.00
Brett Favre100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin57841
Bernard Berrian36471
Adrian Peterson12440
Sidney Rice45400
Chester Taylor23150
Visanthe Shiancoe13121
Jeff Dugan1121
Jimmy Kleinsasser0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/4128730
Matt Flynn1/1300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers55210.40
Ryan Grant10303.00
Ahman Green210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings812881
Donald Driver610630
James Jones15420
Ryan Grant33210
Donald Lee36170
Ahman Green11120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.16