Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.124
- 45.1%Success rate44.9%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.018
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- +5.77CPOE+3.74
- 45.4%Third-down rate47.0%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 2.31Points / drive2.22
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/28 | 244 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 97 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Bernard Berrian | 3 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/41 | 287 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 8 | 12 | 88 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 6 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.16