Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
43
Model margin
+5.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play+0.046
- 44.1%Success rate43.1%
- +0.178EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.028
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.4%
- +2.61CPOE+0.05
- 42.5%Third-down rate37.2%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 2.02Points / drive2.04
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/39 | 222 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Boss | 3 | 9 | 70 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 8 | 12 | 68 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Sinorice Moss | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/23 | 240 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 11 | 82 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Eldra Buckley | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 4 | 78 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.27