2009 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

17·40

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

43

Model margin

+5.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • +0.062EPA / play+0.046
  • 44.1%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.178EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.028
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +2.61CPOE+0.05
  • 42.5%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.04
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00360Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 13:26313Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 12:07420Touchdown0–13
NYGQ1 11:15930Punt0–13
PHIQ1 6:471472Field goal0–16
NYGQ2 14:51621Punt0–16
PHIQ2 10:47613Punt0–16
NYGQ2 6:58989Touchdown7–16
PHIQ2 1:54154Touchdown7–23
NYGQ2 1:3820Turnover7–23
PHIQ2 1:15243Touchdown7–30
NYGQ2 0:46410Punt7–30
NYGQ3 15:0000Field goal7–30
PHIQ3 14:5034Field goal7–33
NYGQ3 14:02949Turnover on downs7–33
PHIQ3 9:39419Turnover7–33
NYGQ3 7:23418Field goal10–33
PHIQ3 5:0900Touchdown10–33
NYGQ3 5:03823Touchdown17–33
PHIQ3 1:03490Touchdown17–40
NYGQ4 14:22834Missed field goal17–40
PHIQ4 9:36611Punt17–40
NYGQ4 4:511165Turnover on downs17–40
PHIQ4 1:5126Punt17–40
NYGQ4 0:5034End of half17–40

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning20/3922212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs20864.30
Eli Manning33411.30
Ahmad Bradshaw9212.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Boss39701
Steve Smith812680
Hakeem Nicks45530
Brandon Jacobs24210
Derek Hagan2270
Domenik Hixon1130
Sinorice Moss0300
Travis Beckum0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb17/2324030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy11827.51
Donovan McNabb11414.00
Eldra Buckley263.00
Mike Vick231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson34781
Brent Celek46611
Jeremy Maclin44471
Jason Avant22320
Alex Smith11110
LeSean McCoy22100
Donovan McNabb1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.27