Closing spread
SD -16
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutCornell GreenTCalf· DNP
- OutDarren McFaddenRBKnee· DNP
- OutNick MillerWRShin· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutRicky BrownLBAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulChaz SchilensWRFoot· DNP
- QuestionableGreg EllisDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableRobert GalleryGFibula· Limited
- QuestionableTony StewartTEChest· DNP
- ProbableBruce GradkowskiQBIllness· Full
- ProbableChris JohnsonCBGroin· Full
- ProbableGerard WarrenDTRibs· Full
- ProbableLouis MurphyWRHip· Full
Chargers
- OutNick HardwickCAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulKevin BurnettLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableOgemdi NwagbuoDTAnkle· DNP
- ProbableMike ScifresPleft Groin· Full
- ProbableShawne MerrimanLBFoot· Full
- ProbableTravis JohnsonDEGroin· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:08 | 2 | 59 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 11:13 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:36 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 6:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:41 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 2:15 | 7 | 27 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:40 | 12 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 6:09 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 4:28 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:54 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 10–21 |
| LAC | Q2 0:11 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–21 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LV | Q3 13:33 | 7 | 29 | Field goal | 13–21 |
| LAC | Q3 9:09 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 13–21 |
| LV | Q3 6:28 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–21 |
| LV | Q3 4:04 | 10 | 48 | Field goal | 16–21 |
| LAC | Q4 12:39 | 15 | 83 | Field goal | 16–24 |
| LV | Q4 4:43 | 10 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 16–24 |
| LAC | Q4 0:54 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 16–24 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.